Currently, a statistical and pragmatic thorn in everybody's paws is that even if one is
pretty close on where a future epicenter might be and how powerful (Richter) the
event might be there is still a headache. Absent a methane bubble sensor network, it is
a whole lot easier predicting a major volcanic eruption (let's say high end of VEI=4)
than it is predicting a major earthquake. Suppose at a volcano of your choice the
characteristic swarm of micro-quakes starts, and it seems clear that big trouble will be
arriving in little time. A problem for governments is evacuate everyone to where? Not
so easy even for a small country like Montserrat (1995 and continuing) or Martinique
(1902 eruption of Mount Pelee killed 30,000 mostly in Saint Pierre).
Mt. Fuji is at the trisection of three plates. Were someone to tell the Japanese
government they need to move anyone within y kilometers of Fuji-san it is not clear
how y would be determined. Even if a credible value for y is calculated it is not so
obvious where Japan, an advanced nation (and once quite prosperous) could park and
provide for tens of thousands of people. Here in the Yellowstonian region we would
assume if the sensor network started signalling trouble ahead someone like Professor
Robert Smith of the University of Utah would be obliged to tell several governors that
they need to move x people (anyone inside the danger zone) outside of long-lat grid y
within the z days. Not to be too facetious, but suppose Utah evacuates thousands of
folks to the many foreclosed homes all over Nevada. Utah loses citizens (never good)
and they have no jobs in Nevada. We see this as the real problem for Japan - what to
do with all the thousands of displaced people. Matters are even more complex in
Libya. Civilians have fled either the country (externally displaced to camps in Tunisia,
Algeria and Egypt) or at least their home cities (internally displaced). As usual in
un-civil wars, there is the additional confusion of determining exactly whose citizen
someone is. ©
2018 Peter F. Zoll. All rights reserved.