COVID-19     2020-08-10 17:00 Pacific
Coronavirus 2019-2020   also known as    SARS-CoV-2
Countries using July data   for August 31st    
Country Predicted deaths Predicted cases Slope Intercept R squared
United States 164,585 6,409,083 62,620 2,526,643 .9985
Brazil 124,828 3,840,942 38,918 1,398,026 .9948
India 54,899 2,678,997 34,621 469,495 .9786
Russia 18,607 1,036,590 6,216 651,198 .9989
South Africa 13,400 855,622  11,547 139,708 .9986
Florida 10,100 805,415 10,674 143,627 .9987
California  12,299  779,372  8,935  225,402  .9986
Texas 10,575 694,999 8,712 154,855 .9974
Mexico  65,436  618,208  6,351 224,446  .9993
Peru 25,498 615,973 6,312 354,181 .9997
Colombia 16,829 490,207 6,456 79,935 .9822
New York 25,493 437,426 697 394,212 .9993
Chile 13,932 432,663 2,401 283,801 .9935
Iran 22,770 378,705 2,426 228,293 .9996
Saudi Arabia 4,148 364,802 2,700 197,402 .9881
Pakistan 7,756 352,560 2,201 216,098 .9613
Bangladesh 4,394 329,299 2,916 148,507 .9989
United Kingdom 48,359 323,720 677 282,423 .9970
Spain 28,532  320,322  1,234 243,184  .9172
Argentina 5,746 318,834 4,097 54,721 .9841
Georgia (US State) 4,548 293,193 3,447 79,479 .9976
Turkey 6,254 261,346 974 200,958 .9988
Italy 35,557 254,235 216 240,843 .9957
Germany 9,298 222,195 436 193,813 .9840
Illinois 8,068 214,554 1,152 140,780 .9888
France 30,406 212,211 701 163,822 .9792
Iraq 7,624 198,401 2,380 50,841 .9986
New Jersey 15,910 187,442 299 172,631 .9834
North Carolina 2,513 180,265 1,884 63,457 .9988
Louisiana 4,547 180,143 2,002 56,019 .9959
Tennessee 1,526 169,757 2,057 42,223 .9909
Indonesia 7,487 160,197 1,675 56,347 .9989
Philippines 2,962 147,325 1,741 39,383 .9932
South Carolina 2,710 143,068 1,743 35,002 .9985
Kazakhstan 1,368 140,088 1,646 38,036 .9970
Pennsylvania 7,717 137,811 831 86,289 .9967
Alabama 2,194 137,427 1,651 35,065 .9959
Ohio 4,109 131,086 1,288 51,230 .9981
Canada 9,266 128,838 404 103,790 .9883
Massachusetts 9,106 126,106 274 109,118 .9915
Qatar 236 125,503 447 97,789 .9858
Bolivia 4,746 121,610 1,446 31,958 .9979
Israel 808 120,011 1,558 23,415 .9939
Virginia 2,515 117,277 915 60,547 .9911
Ecuador 6,842 113,117 895 57,627 .9984
Maryland 3,672 109,488 682 67,204 .9824
Ukraine 2,240 96,106 808 46,010 .9957
Ghana 245 52,792 570 17,452 .9925
Armenia 1,093 52,786 417 26,944 1.0000
           
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A few comments
1. By intention, our models have no factors related to language spoken, religion, gender, location or age. None.
That is to say, we consider ALL human lives equally precious. If you do NOT, please do NOT write to us.  
 We do not like doing this kind of work. We are all old and tired and grumpy. We will not change anyway.
2. We do not have very good figures for hospital beds or for doctors - what we have is way out of date.
3. And who knew that masks and gloves and other personal protection equipment AND ventilators were critical?
4. There are many flaws with confirmed cases as a measure of much of anything besides testing capacity BUT
it is what we have. Maybe next pandemic we will tally how many people needed hospitalization.
5. We would be thrilled if the sum of US County figures for a state were equal to the figures reported for  
states at the national level, and if the figures were more or less accurate the first time. We dislike revisions.
We are having similar challenges with European sub-countries
6. And then there are days where an entity does not report and the numbers are copied from the previous day
7. Although we expect the data to follow s-curves eventually we are using linear extrapolation