Are you able to make sense of California's or America's
unemployment numbers?
As working statisticians with advanced degrees and many years of experience, we have earned our
red eyes and gray hair. The short answer is"no".
The long answer is: "Actually, the problem is worse than it might seem. The unemployment
numbers are a disgrace. What should be reported is simply the number of people employed
full-time with medical benefits; the number of people employed part-time and the number of
people who want to work but are not."
There's a complication: people may be under-employed (working, but at a lower salary). A Phase 2
feature, as we call it.
We despise fraudulent obfuscation like seasonal adjustments; discouraged workers and revisions.
Just four numbers.
Weekly in arrears
By city, county and state. By company if someone really is inspired.
We'd not mind the use of standard job descriptions
Publish it all on the internet.
Fans of attonomic measurement would prefer anonymous individual confirmation.
The longer-term exanomic problem is after working for 40 or 50 years can an individual afford
to retire? Right now, odds are steep that the answer is "not even close".