Before making a choice there are few other factors to consider.
Sudan became independent from the United Kingdom in 1956.
The first uncivil war (largely north versus south) ended in 1972.
The second uncivil war started in 1983 and more or less ended in
2004. Southern Sudan will be voting in an independence
referendum in January 2011. If the referendum is held and is
counted with any reasonable accuracy it will pass. This will
result in a number of challenges: we would anticipate transfers
by hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people. It is unclear
what will happen to an estimated four million Sudanese citizens
now living in exile in Egypt, Ethiopia, Chad, Kenya and other
countries. Likewise, there are an estimated 300,000 refugees
from other countries living in the various Sudans. Then there is
the problem of the Darfur region and [poorly] estimated six
million people. Northern Sudan has virtually no resources, and
Darfur has even less. We are certain that Sudan cannot afford a
third uncivil war or even any prolonged disturbances based on
ethnic or religious divisions. Any persistent and pervasive
violence will result in viruses and bacteria winning. There are
major issues with water and coastal access to be resolved.
In contrast, California's challenge of an estimated two million illegal immigrants appears to
Notwithstanding the intricate and large-scale logistics of moving Sudanese and
non-Sudanese people around, all three (or four, if no one wants Darfur) entities face very
difficult financial situations. It appears unlikely that the IMF will be interested in loaning
northern Sudan a great deal of money. Likewise, California is unlikely to receive the
needed tens of billions of dollars of Federal loans. Southern Sudan faces enormous
However, from a somewhat higher-level perspective, no one, except Sudanese, cares if any
or all parts of Sudan undergo complete economic and social collapse. In certain neighbors
it might even be preferred.
Our mathematical models show no (zero) scenarios where America undergoes economic
recovery without California also recovering. Even stabilization of California at the current
dismal conditions causes persistent and pervasive negative effects all across and along the
Pacific. It is unclear there will be an American recovery. If there is, California must lead it.