COVID-19 | 2020-08-10 | 17:00 | Pacific | ||
Coronavirus | 2019-2020 | also known as | SARS-CoV-2 | ||
Countries | using July data | for August 31st | |||
Country | Predicted deaths | Predicted cases | Slope | Intercept | R squared |
United States | 164,585 | 6,409,083 | 62,620 | 2,526,643 | .9985 |
Brazil | 124,828 | 3,840,942 | 38,918 | 1,398,026 | .9948 |
India | 54,899 | 2,678,997 | 34,621 | 469,495 | .9786 |
Russia | 18,607 | 1,036,590 | 6,216 | 651,198 | .9989 |
South Africa | 13,400 | 855,622 | 11,547 | 139,708 | .9986 |
Florida | 10,100 | 805,415 | 10,674 | 143,627 | .9987 |
California | 12,299 | 779,372 | 8,935 | 225,402 | .9986 |
Texas | 10,575 | 694,999 | 8,712 | 154,855 | .9974 |
Mexico | 65,436 | 618,208 | 6,351 | 224,446 | .9993 |
Peru | 25,498 | 615,973 | 6,312 | 354,181 | .9997 |
Colombia | 16,829 | 490,207 | 6,456 | 79,935 | .9822 |
New York | 25,493 | 437,426 | 697 | 394,212 | .9993 |
Chile | 13,932 | 432,663 | 2,401 | 283,801 | .9935 |
Iran | 22,770 | 378,705 | 2,426 | 228,293 | .9996 |
Saudi Arabia | 4,148 | 364,802 | 2,700 | 197,402 | .9881 |
Pakistan | 7,756 | 352,560 | 2,201 | 216,098 | .9613 |
Bangladesh | 4,394 | 329,299 | 2,916 | 148,507 | .9989 |
United Kingdom | 48,359 | 323,720 | 677 | 282,423 | .9970 |
Spain | 28,532 | 320,322 | 1,234 | 243,184 | .9172 |
Argentina | 5,746 | 318,834 | 4,097 | 54,721 | .9841 |
Georgia (US State) | 4,548 | 293,193 | 3,447 | 79,479 | .9976 |
Turkey | 6,254 | 261,346 | 974 | 200,958 | .9988 |
Italy | 35,557 | 254,235 | 216 | 240,843 | .9957 |
Germany | 9,298 | 222,195 | 436 | 193,813 | .9840 |
Illinois | 8,068 | 214,554 | 1,152 | 140,780 | .9888 |
France | 30,406 | 212,211 | 701 | 163,822 | .9792 |
Iraq | 7,624 | 198,401 | 2,380 | 50,841 | .9986 |
New Jersey | 15,910 | 187,442 | 299 | 172,631 | .9834 |
North Carolina | 2,513 | 180,265 | 1,884 | 63,457 | .9988 |
Louisiana | 4,547 | 180,143 | 2,002 | 56,019 | .9959 |
Tennessee | 1,526 | 169,757 | 2,057 | 42,223 | .9909 |
Indonesia | 7,487 | 160,197 | 1,675 | 56,347 | .9989 |
Philippines | 2,962 | 147,325 | 1,741 | 39,383 | .9932 |
South Carolina | 2,710 | 143,068 | 1,743 | 35,002 | .9985 |
Kazakhstan | 1,368 | 140,088 | 1,646 | 38,036 | .9970 |
Pennsylvania | 7,717 | 137,811 | 831 | 86,289 | .9967 |
Alabama | 2,194 | 137,427 | 1,651 | 35,065 | .9959 |
Ohio | 4,109 | 131,086 | 1,288 | 51,230 | .9981 |
Canada | 9,266 | 128,838 | 404 | 103,790 | .9883 |
Massachusetts | 9,106 | 126,106 | 274 | 109,118 | .9915 |
Qatar | 236 | 125,503 | 447 | 97,789 | .9858 |
Bolivia | 4,746 | 121,610 | 1,446 | 31,958 | .9979 |
Israel | 808 | 120,011 | 1,558 | 23,415 | .9939 |
Virginia | 2,515 | 117,277 | 915 | 60,547 | .9911 |
Ecuador | 6,842 | 113,117 | 895 | 57,627 | .9984 |
Maryland | 3,672 | 109,488 | 682 | 67,204 | .9824 |
Ukraine | 2,240 | 96,106 | 808 | 46,010 | .9957 |
Ghana | 245 | 52,792 | 570 | 17,452 | .9925 |
Armenia | 1,093 | 52,786 | 417 | 26,944 | 1.0000 |
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A few comments |
1. By intention, our models have no factors related to language spoken, religion, gender, location or age. None. |
That is to say, we consider ALL human lives equally precious. If you do NOT, please do NOT write to us. |
We do not like doing this kind of work. We are all old and tired and grumpy. We will not change anyway. |
2. We do not have very good figures for hospital beds or for doctors - what we have is way out of date. |
3. And who knew that masks and gloves and other personal protection equipment AND ventilators were critical? |
4. There are many flaws with confirmed cases as a measure of much of anything besides testing capacity BUT |
it is what we have. Maybe next pandemic we will tally how many people needed hospitalization. |
5. We would be thrilled if the sum of US County figures for a state were equal to the figures reported for |
states at the national level, and if the figures were more or less accurate the first time. We dislike revisions. |
We are having similar challenges with European sub-countries |
6. And then there are days where an entity does not report and the numbers are copied from the previous day |
7. Although we expect the data to follow s-curves eventually we are using linear extrapolation |