| KLIPSPRINGER asserts that historically the Solomon Islands are fairly active seismically AND that earthquakes there tend to occur in tuples (two or more events usually within a degree of both latitude and longitude and generally of nearly equal Richter strength usually within a short time period). Adding up the chances for a 5.0 through 5.3 we would obtain a total of nearly 60%. Fortunately, low 5s are barely felt, and the Solomon Islanders experience so many (often more than one per day) they are generally ignored. Even the 25% chance of an earthquake up to Richter 5.9 would not be cause for concern in this region. A high 5 Richter, especially with a shallow depth (under 10 km), can cause substantial damage in a small area as could be seen recently in Christchurch in New Zealand. The cumulative 10% chance of a 6.0 to 6.9 Richter should be cause for concern - of course, not every 5.0 in the Solomons is a foreshock for a major event. Historically, the Solomons have not had a measured Richter 8.2 or higher in the last forty years. This is a very short interval in geological time, and also reflects a disinclination to invest in seismic movement measuring gear. |
