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software use the
same prediction
model - the red
ellipses show
highest probability
epicenters. All in
all, were there to be
a seismic event near
Rome, we would
expect something
between 5.0 and 5.4.
Time will tell.
For fans of tuples on 2/14/2008 at 10:09 at  36.50 N 21.67 E and 29 km deep there was a
Richter 6.9, followed by a Richter 6.5 at 12:08 at  36.35 N   21.86 E at a depth of  28 km.
Curiously, in this area tuples with the potential to create impressive damage are rare.
We point out that the 2009 earthquake in L'Aquila (about 90 km northeast of Rome)
was only a Richter 5.8, but was very shallow (less than 10 km) and hit in an area with
special soil properties. Nevertheless, 308 people killed; over 1,500 injured; thousands of
buildings (figures range from less than 3,000 to more than 11,000). There is still
considerable controversy about Giampaolo Giuliani's use of radon gas emissions to
make seismic event predictions.  I went to the American Geophysical Union meetings in
San Francisco in December 2009 to hear him make a presentation. If he has anything to
say about Rome, were I living in or near Rome, I'd listen.
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